Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПервый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Лула да Силва <5% 44%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 38%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 5.8%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 5.3%
$387,252 Объем
$387,252 Объем
3 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
4%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
5%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
38%
Лула да Силва <5%
44%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
3%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
2%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
6%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
<1%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
<1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
<1%
Другой
<1%
Лула да Силва <5% 44%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 38%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 5.8%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 5.3%
$387,252 Объем
$387,252 Объем
3 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
$16,870 Объем
4%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
$34,880 Объем
5%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
$27,668 Объем
38%
Лула да Силва <5%
$34,352 Объем
44%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
$12,161 Объем
3%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
$10,242 Объем
2%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
$17,207 Объем
6%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
$212,451 Объем
<1%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
$7,371 Объем
<1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
$6,710 Объем
<1%
Другой
$7,340 Объем
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Объем
$387,252Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$387,252Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Займёт ли Флавио Болсонару второе место в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
89%
Да
Выиграет ли Лула большинство голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
90%
Да
Финиширует ли Аугусто Кури на третьем месте в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
52%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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