**Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate in Brazil’s 2026 presidential race, faces a first-round vote on October 4.** Traders assign a 93% implied probability that he will participate in at least one televised or radio debate beforehand, reflecting his established pattern of engagement and the rapid reversal of recent procedural hurdles. Santos joined the August 23 Band debate alongside Ronaldo Caiado and Augusto Cury after leading candidates opted out. A temporary TSE restriction imposed around September 1 briefly barred him from radio and television debates, suspended electoral fund access, and limited social media activity. Minister Dias Toffoli lifted these measures days later once compliance steps were completed, explicitly restoring debate eligibility. Since the reversal, Santos has continued high-visibility appearances, including a September 4 CNN interview and a Globo sabatina. Upcoming scheduled debates, including one set for September 14, further support expectations of continued participation. No new disqualifying barriers have emerged, and Santos’s campaign has prioritized media exposure to offset limited free airtime. These confirmed developments and the absence of fresh restrictions underpin the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing.