The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision occurs against a backdrop of recent 25-basis-point cuts that slowed from prior 50-basis-point moves, with the key rate now at 14.00 percent. Persistent pro-inflationary pressures from elevated fuel prices, supply disruptions at refineries, and a more expansionary fiscal stance with wider budget deficits have narrowed scope for further easing, prompting the central bank to raise its 2026 inflation projection to 6.0–7.0 percent and signal a higher average rate path. Analysts and recent commentary highlight these risks as outweighing disinflationary trends in underlying price growth, supporting trader consensus around an unchanged outcome while leaving limited room for an additional modest reduction if incoming data shows sustained moderation in inflation expectations.