Recent inflation acceleration to around 6.3% year-over-year by late August, driven by higher fuel prices amid refinery disruptions and a weaker ruble, has prompted the Bank of Russia to adopt a cautious stance ahead of its September 11 meeting. Following the July cut of 25 basis points to 14%, analysts widely expect a pause, with most forecasts pointing to no change given persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal spending and supply constraints. This market positioning reflects trader consensus on the central bank's data-dependent approach, which prioritizes containing price pressures over further easing despite moderate economic growth. A smaller probability of a cut remains if incoming inflation figures moderate, while any rate increase appears unlikely absent major new shocks.