**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily transits at low single-digit levels consistent with the market's leading 5-10 (48.0%) and 0-5 (35.5%) bins.** As of early September 2026, AIS-visible commodity vessel movements hover around 4–5 per day on a 7-day average—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline near 74 daily transits—with no liquid tankers observed in recent windows amid dark activity, rerouting, and elevated war-risk insurance. IRGC directives favoring Iranian-controlled routes, combined with prior attacks, U.S. strikes, and reimposed sanctions, have eroded operator confidence and limited flows primarily to state-linked or high-risk operators. With end-September resolution approaching, traders price in sustained disruption unless rapid de-escalation materializes, though any ceasefire progress or reduced enforcement could lift volumes toward the thinner 10-15 probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСреднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце сентября?
Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Ормузский пролив в конце сентября?
5-10 48%
0-5 37%
10-15 7%
15–20 4.7%
$13,688 Объем
$13,688 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
0-5
37%
5-10
48%
10-15
7%
15–20
5%
20-25
2%
25–30
3%
30+
3%
5-10 48%
0-5 37%
10-15 7%
15–20 4.7%
$13,688 Объем
$13,688 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
0-5
$3,072 Объем
37%
5-10
$2,225 Объем
48%
10-15
$2,800 Объем
7%
15–20
$737 Объем
5%
20-25
$290 Объем
2%
25–30
$4,266 Объем
3%
30+
$298 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily transits at low single-digit levels consistent with the market's leading 5-10 (48.0%) and 0-5 (35.5%) bins.** As of early September 2026, AIS-visible commodity vessel movements hover around 4–5 per day on a 7-day average—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline near 74 daily transits—with no liquid tankers observed in recent windows amid dark activity, rerouting, and elevated war-risk insurance. IRGC directives favoring Iranian-controlled routes, combined with prior attacks, U.S. strikes, and reimposed sanctions, have eroded operator confidence and limited flows primarily to state-linked or high-risk operators. With end-September resolution approaching, traders price in sustained disruption unless rapid de-escalation materializes, though any ceasefire progress or reduced enforcement could lift volumes toward the thinner 10-15 probability.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Объем
$13,688Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily transits at low single-digit levels consistent with the market's leading 5-10 (48.0%) and 0-5 (35.5%) bins.** As of early September 2026, AIS-visible commodity vessel movements hover around 4–5 per day on a 7-day average—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline near 74 daily transits—with no liquid tankers observed in recent windows amid dark activity, rerouting, and elevated war-risk insurance. IRGC directives favoring Iranian-controlled routes, combined with prior attacks, U.S. strikes, and reimposed sanctions, have eroded operator confidence and limited flows primarily to state-linked or high-risk operators. With end-September resolution approaching, traders price in sustained disruption unless rapid de-escalation materializes, though any ceasefire progress or reduced enforcement could lift volumes toward the thinner 10-15 probability.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$13,688Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily transits at low single-digit levels consistent with the market's leading 5-10 (48.0%) and 0-5 (35.5%) bins.** As of early September 2026, AIS-visible commodity vessel movements hover around 4–5 per day on a 7-day average—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline near 74 daily transits—with no liquid tankers observed in recent windows amid dark activity, rerouting, and elevated war-risk insurance. IRGC directives favoring Iranian-controlled routes, combined with prior attacks, U.S. strikes, and reimposed sanctions, have eroded operator confidence and limited flows primarily to state-linked or high-risk operators. With end-September resolution approaching, traders price in sustained disruption unless rapid de-escalation materializes, though any ceasefire progress or reduced enforcement could lift volumes toward the thinner 10-15 probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы