Recent ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a mild late-summer pattern over central Poland, with Warsaw maximum temperatures on August 2 most likely settling near 25–26 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow. This aligns with climatological normals for early August, when daily highs average 24–26 °C, and reflects the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or warm advection that would push readings higher. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these two outcomes because short-range guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability and low risk of either significant cooling from Atlantic fronts or brief warming. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the Warsaw-Okęcie synoptic station; any late-model shift in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the final value by 1 °C.