Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a daily maximum of 27°C on July 31, 2026, establishing the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers linked to the summer monsoon trough, and reduced solar heating kept peaks near or below the July climatological average, limiting diurnal temperature range and preventing spikes above the observed high. Historical analogs and ensemble guidance had pointed to modest cooling under similar moisture patterns. The sole realistic challenge would involve a post-analysis revision to the official record from a primary station, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary data are verified and published.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Hong Kong em 31 de julho?
27°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$169,237 Vol.
$169,237 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
27°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$169,237 Vol.
$169,237 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a daily maximum of 27°C on July 31, 2026, establishing the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers linked to the summer monsoon trough, and reduced solar heating kept peaks near or below the July climatological average, limiting diurnal temperature range and preventing spikes above the observed high. Historical analogs and ensemble guidance had pointed to modest cooling under similar moisture patterns. The sole realistic challenge would involve a post-analysis revision to the official record from a primary station, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary data are verified and published.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado


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