Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race. Recent July polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest shows Ferraço leading first-round scenarios with 37–41% support, ahead of Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor, at 25–30%, with other candidates including Helder Salomão (PT) trailing further behind. Ferraço’s broad coalition spanning MDB, PP, União, and additional parties, combined with 76% approval ratings on fiscal and security issues, underpins trader consensus. The October 4 first-round vote and possible October 25 runoff remain the key resolution triggers, with Pazolini at 9.5% reflecting his narrower base despite name recognition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para governador do Espírito Santo
Vencedor da eleição para governador do Espírito Santo
Ricardo Ferraço 91%
Lorenzo Pazolini 7%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
Sergio Vidigal <1%
$18,653 Vol.
$18,653 Vol.
4 out 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
91%
Lorenzo Pazolini
7%
Arnaldinho Borgo
1%
Sergio Vidigal
1%
Euclério Sampaio
<1%
Ricardo Ferraço 91%
Lorenzo Pazolini 7%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
Sergio Vidigal <1%
$18,653 Vol.
$18,653 Vol.
4 out 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$9,511 Vol.
91%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$5,070 Vol.
7%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$2,187 Vol.
1%
Sergio Vidigal
$912 Vol.
1%
Euclério Sampaio
$974 Vol.
<1%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race. Recent July polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest shows Ferraço leading first-round scenarios with 37–41% support, ahead of Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor, at 25–30%, with other candidates including Helder Salomão (PT) trailing further behind. Ferraço’s broad coalition spanning MDB, PP, União, and additional parties, combined with 76% approval ratings on fiscal and security issues, underpins trader consensus. The October 4 first-round vote and possible October 25 runoff remain the key resolution triggers, with Pazolini at 9.5% reflecting his narrower base despite name recognition.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$18,653Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race. Recent July polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest shows Ferraço leading first-round scenarios with 37–41% support, ahead of Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor, at 25–30%, with other candidates including Helder Salomão (PT) trailing further behind. Ferraço’s broad coalition spanning MDB, PP, União, and additional parties, combined with 76% approval ratings on fiscal and security issues, underpins trader consensus. The October 4 first-round vote and possible October 25 runoff remain the key resolution triggers, with Pazolini at 9.5% reflecting his narrower base despite name recognition.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,653Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds an 89.5% implied probability in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race. Recent July polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest shows Ferraço leading first-round scenarios with 37–41% support, ahead of Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor, at 25–30%, with other candidates including Helder Salomão (PT) trailing further behind. Ferraço’s broad coalition spanning MDB, PP, União, and additional parties, combined with 76% approval ratings on fiscal and security issues, underpins trader consensus. The October 4 first-round vote and possible October 25 runoff remain the key resolution triggers, with Pazolini at 9.5% reflecting his narrower base despite name recognition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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