Skip to main content
icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro
Eleições·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro

icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro
Eleições·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes 96.5%

Douglas Ruas 1.3%

Anthony Garotinho <1%

Rafa Luz <1%

Polymarket

$325,136 Vol.

Eduardo Paes 96.5%

Douglas Ruas 1.3%

Anthony Garotinho <1%

Rafa Luz <1%

Polymarket

$325,136 Vol.

icon for Eduardo Paes

Eduardo Paes

$47,825 Vol.

97%

icon for Douglas Ruas

Douglas Ruas

$13,030 Vol.

1%

icon for Anthony Garotinho

Anthony Garotinho

$15,333 Vol.

1%

icon for Rafa Luz

Rafa Luz

$6,672 Vol.

1%

icon for Lindbergh Farias

Lindbergh Farias

$10,049 Vol.

<1%

icon for Coronel Busnello

Coronel Busnello

$10,134 Vol.

<1%

icon for Wilson Witzel

Wilson Witzel

$12,807 Vol.

<1%

icon for Felipe Curi

Felipe Curi

$19,051 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chico Machado

Chico Machado

$9,843 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fred Pacheco

Fred Pacheco

$134,487 Vol.

<1%

icon for André Ceciliano

André Ceciliano

$12,315 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcísio Motta

Tarcísio Motta

$11,578 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dr. Luizinho

Dr. Luizinho

$10,219 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Pazuello

Eduardo Pazuello

$2,717 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nicola Miccione

Nicola Miccione

$5,387 Vol.

<1%

icon for André Português

André Português

$3,688 Vol.

<1%

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race due to his high name recognition as the outgoing mayor, consistent polling advantages, and PSD party backing after resigning his post in March 2026 to enter the contest. Traders price his victory at 96.5% ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, reflecting broad centrist appeal and the fragmented field of lower-profile challengers including Douglas Ruas and others. Recent conventions have formalized his candidacy without major disruptions, while the prior governor’s resignation created an open race favoring established figures. Late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still shift probabilities before election day.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$325,136
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race due to his high name recognition as the outgoing mayor, consistent polling advantages, and PSD party backing after resigning his post in March 2026 to enter the contest. Traders price his victory at 96.5% ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, reflecting broad centrist appeal and the fragmented field of lower-profile challengers including Douglas Ruas and others. Recent conventions have formalized his candidacy without major disruptions, while the prior governor’s resignation created an open race favoring established figures. Late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still shift probabilities before election day.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$325,136
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Relacionado

icon for Allyson vencerá a eleição para governador do Rio Grande do Norte em 2026?

Allyson vencerá a eleição para governador do Rio Grande do Norte em 2026?

75%
Sim
icon for Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

61%
icon for Arthur Henrique vencerá a eleição para governador de Roraima em 2026?

Arthur Henrique vencerá a eleição para governador de Roraima em 2026?

91%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eduardo Paes" at 97%, followed by "Douglas Ruas" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" has generated $325.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" is "Eduardo Paes" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Douglas Ruas" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Rio de Janeiro" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.