Skip to main content
icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal
Política·Eleição Principal

Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal

icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal
Política·Eleição Principal

Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal

Flavio Bolsonaro 68%

Lula 33%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Flavio Bolsonaro 68%

Lula 33%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,044 Vol.

68%

icon for Lula

Lula

$2,007 Vol.

33%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$393 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$380 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$559 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$532 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$322 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$504 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$343 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$284 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$500 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$591 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a leading position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District first round due to the region's established right-leaning electorate, including concentrations of federal employees, military personnel, and conservative voters who have consistently favored PL-aligned candidates in recent cycles. His July 2026 Liberal Party nomination as Jair Bolsonaro's designated successor, combined with the official campaign launch in mid-August, has reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. Incumbent President Lula da Silva trails in these estimates, reflecting weaker historical performance in Brasília despite national polling leads elsewhere. Other registered candidates remain marginal in DF-specific assessments, with structural barriers such as limited local organization and name recognition limiting their viability in the capital's contest.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,991
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a leading position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District first round due to the region's established right-leaning electorate, including concentrations of federal employees, military personnel, and conservative voters who have consistently favored PL-aligned candidates in recent cycles. His July 2026 Liberal Party nomination as Jair Bolsonaro's designated successor, combined with the official campaign launch in mid-August, has reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. Incumbent President Lula da Silva trails in these estimates, reflecting weaker historical performance in Brasília despite national polling leads elsewhere. Other registered candidates remain marginal in DF-specific assessments, with structural barriers such as limited local organization and name recognition limiting their viability in the capital's contest.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,991
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Relacionado

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro ficará em segundo lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

Flávio Bolsonaro ficará em segundo lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

86%
Sim
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

64%
icon for Renan Santos terminará em terceiro lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

Renan Santos terminará em terceiro lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?

53%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 68%, followed by "Lula" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil - 1º turno: 1º lugar no Distrito Federal" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.