Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest, driven by repeated leads in voter intention surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Datafolha. The most recent poll, released August 17, placed her at 29 percent, well ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 20 percent and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18 percent. Her consistent advantage stems from strong name recognition as a former federal deputy, strategic alignment with national issues such as sovereignty and the Lula administration, and recent campaign adjustments including the naming of substitutes. Miguel Coelho’s withdrawal has further consolidated support around the frontrunners. Trader consensus assigns Arraes the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting these polling trends and the two-seat electoral structure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMarília Arraes 73%
Humberto Costa 16.8%
Mendonça Filho 7.4%
Carlos Sant'Anna 5.0%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Marília Arraes
73%
Humberto Costa
16%
Mendonça Filho
7%
Carlos Sant'Anna
5%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
4%
Mailson da Silva Neto
3%
Samuel Timoteo
3%
Túlio Gadêlha
1%
Gorett Bitu
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
1%
Mariano Macedo
1%
Marília Arraes 73%
Humberto Costa 16.8%
Mendonça Filho 7.4%
Carlos Sant'Anna 5.0%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Marília Arraes
$3,889 Vol.
73%
Humberto Costa
$462 Vol.
16%
Mendonça Filho
$146 Vol.
7%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$143 Vol.
5%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$146 Vol.
4%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$174 Vol.
3%
Samuel Timoteo
$168 Vol.
3%
Túlio Gadêlha
$146 Vol.
1%
Gorett Bitu
$146 Vol.
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$146 Vol.
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
$143 Vol.
1%
Mariano Macedo
$154 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest, driven by repeated leads in voter intention surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Datafolha. The most recent poll, released August 17, placed her at 29 percent, well ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 20 percent and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18 percent. Her consistent advantage stems from strong name recognition as a former federal deputy, strategic alignment with national issues such as sovereignty and the Lula administration, and recent campaign adjustments including the naming of substitutes. Miguel Coelho’s withdrawal has further consolidated support around the frontrunners. Trader consensus assigns Arraes the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting these polling trends and the two-seat electoral structure.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$5,865Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest, driven by repeated leads in voter intention surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Datafolha. The most recent poll, released August 17, placed her at 29 percent, well ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 20 percent and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18 percent. Her consistent advantage stems from strong name recognition as a former federal deputy, strategic alignment with national issues such as sovereignty and the Lula administration, and recent campaign adjustments including the naming of substitutes. Miguel Coelho’s withdrawal has further consolidated support around the frontrunners. Trader consensus assigns Arraes the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting these polling trends and the two-seat electoral structure.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,865Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a commanding position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate contest, driven by repeated leads in voter intention surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Datafolha. The most recent poll, released August 17, placed her at 29 percent, well ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 20 percent and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 18 percent. Her consistent advantage stems from strong name recognition as a former federal deputy, strategic alignment with national issues such as sovereignty and the Lula administration, and recent campaign adjustments including the naming of substitutes. Miguel Coelho’s withdrawal has further consolidated support around the frontrunners. Trader consensus assigns Arraes the highest implied probability for first place, reflecting these polling trends and the two-seat electoral structure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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