Skip to main content
icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará

icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará

Lula 97.6%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Lula 97.6%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Lula

Lula

$2,274 Vol.

98%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$660 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$387 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$307 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$367 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$377 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$562 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$317 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$337 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$325 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$317 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$317 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$337 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in Ceará for first-round votes due to the state's longstanding alignment with the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's established base in the Northeast, where social programs and regional economic ties have sustained voter loyalty across multiple cycles. National polling trends show Lula maintaining a lead over challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, though with narrower margins elsewhere, reinforcing trader consensus on his Ceará dominance ahead of the October 4 contest. Scheduled campaign events and state-level dynamics could influence turnout, yet any shift would require a major late development such as a significant policy reversal or localized opposition surge capable of altering the regional voting pattern.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,882
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in Ceará for first-round votes due to the state's longstanding alignment with the Workers' Party and the incumbent president's established base in the Northeast, where social programs and regional economic ties have sustained voter loyalty across multiple cycles. National polling trends show Lula maintaining a lead over challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, though with narrower margins elsewhere, reinforcing trader consensus on his Ceará dominance ahead of the October 4 contest. Scheduled campaign events and state-level dynamics could influence turnout, yet any shift would require a major late development such as a significant policy reversal or localized opposition surge capable of altering the regional voting pattern.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,882
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Relacionado

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em São Paulo?

Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em São Paulo?

85%
Sim
icon for Lula vencerá com mais votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em Pernambuco?

Lula vencerá com mais votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em Pernambuco?

97%
Sim
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

64%

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 98%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" is "Lula" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.