Skip to main content
icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas

icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas

Lula 96.5%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Lula 96.5%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Lula

Lula

$4,273 Vol.

97%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$252 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$225 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$236 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$236 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$236 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$236 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$191 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$225 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$236 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$236 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$191 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$225 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position in Alagoas for first-round first place stems from the state’s location in Brazil’s Northeast, where his PT coalition consistently draws strong backing among lower-income, Catholic, and older voters. Recent state-level surveys, including a July Real Time Big Data poll showing him at 51% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, align with national first-round trends from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus that place Lula in the low 40s against Bolsonaro in the mid-30s. Flávio’s selection of Alagoas deputy Alfredo Gaspar as running mate has not narrowed the gap materially. With the October 4 first round approaching and campaign season underway, late developments such as economic shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the current trader consensus.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,003
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position in Alagoas for first-round first place stems from the state’s location in Brazil’s Northeast, where his PT coalition consistently draws strong backing among lower-income, Catholic, and older voters. Recent state-level surveys, including a July Real Time Big Data poll showing him at 51% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 30%, align with national first-round trends from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus that place Lula in the low 40s against Bolsonaro in the mid-30s. Flávio’s selection of Alagoas deputy Alfredo Gaspar as running mate has not narrowed the gap materially. With the October 4 first round approaching and campaign season underway, late developments such as economic shifts, candidate health issues, or major scandals remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the current trader consensus.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,003
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Relacionado

icon for Lula terá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil na Paraíba?

Lula terá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil na Paraíba?

95%
Sim
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos no Distrito Federal na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil?

Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos no Distrito Federal na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil?

80%
Sim
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em São Paulo?

Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em São Paulo?

85%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 97%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas" is "Lula" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar em Alagoas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.