Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman has held California's 32nd congressional district since 1997, and the seat carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in voter registration and repeated forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Sherman advanced alongside Republican Larry Thompson after other Democratic candidates split the remaining vote, positioning the general election contest for November 3, 2026, as a matchup favoring the incumbent. Trader consensus at 94.5% probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of altering the balance. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal by Sherman, or an unusually strong national Republican surge that overcomes the district's baseline partisan composition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-32
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-32
$24,931 Vol.
$24,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$24,931 Vol.
$24,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$11,496 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$13,435 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman has held California's 32nd congressional district since 1997, and the seat carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in voter registration and repeated forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Sherman advanced alongside Republican Larry Thompson after other Democratic candidates split the remaining vote, positioning the general election contest for November 3, 2026, as a matchup favoring the incumbent. Trader consensus at 94.5% probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of altering the balance. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal by Sherman, or an unusually strong national Republican surge that overcomes the district's baseline partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$24,931Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman has held California's 32nd congressional district since 1997, and the seat carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in voter registration and repeated forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Sherman advanced alongside Republican Larry Thompson after other Democratic candidates split the remaining vote, positioning the general election contest for November 3, 2026, as a matchup favoring the incumbent. Trader consensus at 94.5% probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of altering the balance. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal by Sherman, or an unusually strong national Republican surge that overcomes the district's baseline partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,931Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman has held California's 32nd congressional district since 1997, and the seat carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in voter registration and repeated forecaster ratings of Solid D or Safe D. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Sherman advanced alongside Republican Larry Thompson after other Democratic candidates split the remaining vote, positioning the general election contest for November 3, 2026, as a matchup favoring the incumbent. Trader consensus at 94.5% probability for a Democratic win aligns with the district's structural advantages and the absence of recent developments capable of altering the balance. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal by Sherman, or an unusually strong national Republican surge that overcomes the district's baseline partisan composition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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