The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds support and enters the general against Republican nominee Tommy Hanson in a seat where Democrats have routinely posted margins exceeding 30 points. High educational attainment and suburban Chicago demographics have historically favored the party in recent cycles. While national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, the district's structural advantages and Quigley's incumbency make a Republican upset improbable absent major developments before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-05 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IL-05 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$17,235 Vol.
$17,235 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$17,235 Vol.
$17,235 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$8,787 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$8,448 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds support and enters the general against Republican nominee Tommy Hanson in a seat where Democrats have routinely posted margins exceeding 30 points. High educational attainment and suburban Chicago demographics have historically favored the party in recent cycles. While national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, the district's structural advantages and Quigley's incumbency make a Republican upset improbable absent major developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$17,235Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds support and enters the general against Republican nominee Tommy Hanson in a seat where Democrats have routinely posted margins exceeding 30 points. High educational attainment and suburban Chicago demographics have historically favored the party in recent cycles. While national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, the district's structural advantages and Quigley's incumbency make a Republican upset improbable absent major developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,235Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds support and enters the general against Republican nominee Tommy Hanson in a seat where Democrats have routinely posted margins exceeding 30 points. High educational attainment and suburban Chicago demographics have historically favored the party in recent cycles. While national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, the district's structural advantages and Quigley's incumbency make a Republican upset improbable absent major developments before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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