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Política·Primárias

FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

icon for FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana
Política·Primárias

FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana

Ben Butler 48.9%

Thomas Chalifoux 28%

Dan Green 12%

Jorge Martinez 6.3%

Polymarket

$80,446 Vol.

Ben Butler 48.9%

Thomas Chalifoux 28%

Dan Green 12%

Jorge Martinez 6.3%

Polymarket

$80,446 Vol.

icon for Ben Butler

Ben Butler

$10,859 Vol.

49%

icon for Thomas Chalifoux

Thomas Chalifoux

$20,726 Vol.

28%

icon for Dan Green

Dan Green

$10,212 Vol.

12%

icon for Jorge Martinez

Jorge Martinez

$9,208 Vol.

6%

icon for Justin Story

Justin Story

$11,131 Vol.

1%

icon for Jorge Malavet

Jorge Malavet

$4,251 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcus Carter

Marcus Carter

$2,733 Vol.

<1%

icon for Steve Rance

Steve Rance

$1,460 Vol.

<1%

icon for Howard Steven Rance

Howard Steven Rance

$9,866 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ben Butler leads the market for the Florida 9th Congressional District Republican primary as recent sheriff endorsements and targeted television advertising have boosted his positioning in the final stretch ahead of the August 18 vote. Thomas Chalifoux, the 2024 GOP nominee and former Osceola County School Board member, trails amid competition from Dan Green, a Navy reserve officer and former Defense Department official, and Jorge Martinez, a businessman, with the remainder of the field drawing minimal support. A Victory Insights poll released days earlier showed the top four candidates statistically tied among likely primary voters, with more than 40 percent undecided, reflecting the impact of the district’s new boundaries and limited prior name recognition for most contenders. Fundraising disparities and local candidate forums have further shaped trader assessments of ground-level momentum.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$80,446
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ben Butler leads the market for the Florida 9th Congressional District Republican primary as recent sheriff endorsements and targeted television advertising have boosted his positioning in the final stretch ahead of the August 18 vote. Thomas Chalifoux, the 2024 GOP nominee and former Osceola County School Board member, trails amid competition from Dan Green, a Navy reserve officer and former Defense Department official, and Jorge Martinez, a businessman, with the remainder of the field drawing minimal support. A Victory Insights poll released days earlier showed the top four candidates statistically tied among likely primary voters, with more than 40 percent undecided, reflecting the impact of the district’s new boundaries and limited prior name recognition for most contenders. Fundraising disparities and local candidate forums have further shaped trader assessments of ground-level momentum.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$80,446
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ben Butler" at 49%, followed by "Thomas Chalifoux" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $80.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Ben Butler" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.