Salud Carbajal, the Democratic incumbent since 2017, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Bob Smith in California’s 24th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the wide gap in trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Nonpartisan ratings organizations classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s voter registration edge and historical results favoring the party. Limited Republican fundraising and polling in the district have kept the challenger’s implied probability low ahead of the November general election. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could still alter the trajectory, though none have materialized in recent months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados CA-24
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados CA-24
$35,502 Vol.
$35,502 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
2%
$35,502 Vol.
$35,502 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$17,631 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$17,871 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Salud Carbajal, the Democratic incumbent since 2017, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Bob Smith in California’s 24th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the wide gap in trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Nonpartisan ratings organizations classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s voter registration edge and historical results favoring the party. Limited Republican fundraising and polling in the district have kept the challenger’s implied probability low ahead of the November general election. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could still alter the trajectory, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,502Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Salud Carbajal, the Democratic incumbent since 2017, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Bob Smith in California’s 24th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the wide gap in trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Nonpartisan ratings organizations classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s voter registration edge and historical results favoring the party. Limited Republican fundraising and polling in the district have kept the challenger’s implied probability low ahead of the November general election. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could still alter the trajectory, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,502Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Salud Carbajal, the Democratic incumbent since 2017, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Bob Smith in California’s 24th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic lean, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the wide gap in trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Nonpartisan ratings organizations classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s voter registration edge and historical results favoring the party. Limited Republican fundraising and polling in the district have kept the challenger’s implied probability low ahead of the November general election. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could still alter the trajectory, though none have materialized in recent months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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