Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94% consensus for the Democratic Party. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles, combined with Dean’s established fundraising advantage and recent primary victory, underpins trader assessments of low competitiveness. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected national political shifts, significant candidate-specific developments such as health or legal issues, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though these remain low-probability events based on current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa PA-04
Vencedor da eleição da casa PA-04
$19,199 Vol.
$19,199 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,199 Vol.
$19,199 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$6,741 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,459 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94% consensus for the Democratic Party. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles, combined with Dean’s established fundraising advantage and recent primary victory, underpins trader assessments of low competitiveness. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected national political shifts, significant candidate-specific developments such as health or legal issues, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though these remain low-probability events based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,199Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94% consensus for the Democratic Party. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles, combined with Dean’s established fundraising advantage and recent primary victory, underpins trader assessments of low competitiveness. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected national political shifts, significant candidate-specific developments such as health or legal issues, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though these remain low-probability events based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,199Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94% consensus for the Democratic Party. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles, combined with Dean’s established fundraising advantage and recent primary victory, underpins trader assessments of low competitiveness. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected national political shifts, significant candidate-specific developments such as health or legal issues, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger, though these remain low-probability events based on current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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