Texas voter turnout in the November 2026 U.S. Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains difficult to pin down, producing tightly clustered market probabilities across the 8–11.2 million vote range. Recent primaries showed unusually high participation, with Democrats outpacing Republicans for the first time since 2020 amid a competitive nomination fight, yet midterm runoffs historically see sharp drops. The general election’s closeness, intense mobilization by both parties, and Texas’s large registered voter base (over 18 million) create uncertainty around final participation levels. Late-cycle factors such as early voting trends, weather, national political environment, and ground-game effectiveness in key demographics could shift totals in either direction before Election Day.