The Republican Party holds a 64% implied probability in the CO-04 House race, driven by the district's consistent Republican lean, including its rural Eastern Plains base and PVI around R+9, combined with incumbent Lauren Boebert's 2024 victory margin. The Democratic Party's 37% reflects Eileen Laubacher's strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $10 million by mid-2026, and military background that could appeal to suburban voters in Douglas County, an area showing modest Democratic trends. Recent June 2026 primaries confirmed the nominees without major upsets, while Boebert's lower cash reserves and history of narrower margins sustain trader caution ahead of the November general election. No major late developments have shifted the balance significantly since the primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCO-04 House Election Winner
CO-04 House Election Winner
$11,218 Vol.
$11,218 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
64%
Democratic Party
37%
$11,218 Vol.
$11,218 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$8,906 Vol.
64%
Democratic Party
$2,312 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a 64% implied probability in the CO-04 House race, driven by the district's consistent Republican lean, including its rural Eastern Plains base and PVI around R+9, combined with incumbent Lauren Boebert's 2024 victory margin. The Democratic Party's 37% reflects Eileen Laubacher's strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $10 million by mid-2026, and military background that could appeal to suburban voters in Douglas County, an area showing modest Democratic trends. Recent June 2026 primaries confirmed the nominees without major upsets, while Boebert's lower cash reserves and history of narrower margins sustain trader caution ahead of the November general election. No major late developments have shifted the balance significantly since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,218Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a 64% implied probability in the CO-04 House race, driven by the district's consistent Republican lean, including its rural Eastern Plains base and PVI around R+9, combined with incumbent Lauren Boebert's 2024 victory margin. The Democratic Party's 37% reflects Eileen Laubacher's strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $10 million by mid-2026, and military background that could appeal to suburban voters in Douglas County, an area showing modest Democratic trends. Recent June 2026 primaries confirmed the nominees without major upsets, while Boebert's lower cash reserves and history of narrower margins sustain trader caution ahead of the November general election. No major late developments have shifted the balance significantly since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,218Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds a 64% implied probability in the CO-04 House race, driven by the district's consistent Republican lean, including its rural Eastern Plains base and PVI around R+9, combined with incumbent Lauren Boebert's 2024 victory margin. The Democratic Party's 37% reflects Eileen Laubacher's strong primary performance, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $10 million by mid-2026, and military background that could appeal to suburban voters in Douglas County, an area showing modest Democratic trends. Recent June 2026 primaries confirmed the nominees without major upsets, while Boebert's lower cash reserves and history of narrower margins sustain trader caution ahead of the November general election. No major late developments have shifted the balance significantly since the primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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