Russia's sustained rejection of ceasefire proposals and insistence on maximalist territorial and security demands have kept formal negotiations stalled since trilateral talks in Geneva collapsed in February 2026, with recent August statements from Moscow and Ukrainian intelligence confirming no prospect of agreements this year. Ongoing battlefield operations, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and incremental Russian advances, further signal that neither side views the current frontline as a basis for rapid settlement. Traders' near-certain assessment of "No" reflects the absence of scheduled high-level diplomacy or verifiable progress in the narrow remaining window. A last-minute shift could still occur through sudden U.S. or European intervention or an unforeseen military development altering incentives before August 31, though such outcomes face steep procedural and political barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano<1% szansa
$272,219 Wol.
$272,219 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% szansa
$272,219 Wol.
$272,219 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's sustained rejection of ceasefire proposals and insistence on maximalist territorial and security demands have kept formal negotiations stalled since trilateral talks in Geneva collapsed in February 2026, with recent August statements from Moscow and Ukrainian intelligence confirming no prospect of agreements this year. Ongoing battlefield operations, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and incremental Russian advances, further signal that neither side views the current frontline as a basis for rapid settlement. Traders' near-certain assessment of "No" reflects the absence of scheduled high-level diplomacy or verifiable progress in the narrow remaining window. A last-minute shift could still occur through sudden U.S. or European intervention or an unforeseen military development altering incentives before August 31, though such outcomes face steep procedural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$272,219Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's sustained rejection of ceasefire proposals and insistence on maximalist territorial and security demands have kept formal negotiations stalled since trilateral talks in Geneva collapsed in February 2026, with recent August statements from Moscow and Ukrainian intelligence confirming no prospect of agreements this year. Ongoing battlefield operations, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and incremental Russian advances, further signal that neither side views the current frontline as a basis for rapid settlement. Traders' near-certain assessment of "No" reflects the absence of scheduled high-level diplomacy or verifiable progress in the narrow remaining window. A last-minute shift could still occur through sudden U.S. or European intervention or an unforeseen military development altering incentives before August 31, though such outcomes face steep procedural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$272,219Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's sustained rejection of ceasefire proposals and insistence on maximalist territorial and security demands have kept formal negotiations stalled since trilateral talks in Geneva collapsed in February 2026, with recent August statements from Moscow and Ukrainian intelligence confirming no prospect of agreements this year. Ongoing battlefield operations, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and incremental Russian advances, further signal that neither side views the current frontline as a basis for rapid settlement. Traders' near-certain assessment of "No" reflects the absence of scheduled high-level diplomacy or verifiable progress in the narrow remaining window. A last-minute shift could still occur through sudden U.S. or European intervention or an unforeseen military development altering incentives before August 31, though such outcomes face steep procedural and political barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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