Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate a minimum near 10–11°C for Buenos Aires on September 2, driven by a moderating northerly flow and limited cold-air advection behind a weak frontal passage. Market-implied odds favor 7°C or below at 49% because traders are weighting ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of radiational cooling under clearer skies or stronger southerly shifts than currently depicted. Historical climatology places early-September minima around 11°C, so any downward revision in guidance—such as increased low-level moisture or delayed warming—could quickly reinforce the cold-side probabilities already priced at 8–11°C. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus official SMN updates, will clarify whether steering patterns strengthen the cool anomaly or allow moderation toward the 26% consensus cluster near 10°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 2?
17°C or higher 73%
7°C or below 49%
9°C 29%
8°C 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
49%
8°C
26%
9°C
29%
10°C
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
21%
13°C
16%
14°C
19%
15°C
19%
16°C
19%
17°C or higher
73%
17°C or higher 73%
7°C or below 49%
9°C 29%
8°C 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Wol.
49%
8°C
$0 Wol.
26%
9°C
$0 Wol.
29%
10°C
$0 Wol.
26%
11°C
$0 Wol.
26%
12°C
$107 Wol.
21%
13°C
$5 Wol.
16%
14°C
$5 Wol.
19%
15°C
$5 Wol.
19%
16°C
$5 Wol.
19%
17°C or higher
$5 Wol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate a minimum near 10–11°C for Buenos Aires on September 2, driven by a moderating northerly flow and limited cold-air advection behind a weak frontal passage. Market-implied odds favor 7°C or below at 49% because traders are weighting ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of radiational cooling under clearer skies or stronger southerly shifts than currently depicted. Historical climatology places early-September minima around 11°C, so any downward revision in guidance—such as increased low-level moisture or delayed warming—could quickly reinforce the cold-side probabilities already priced at 8–11°C. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus official SMN updates, will clarify whether steering patterns strengthen the cool anomaly or allow moderation toward the 26% consensus cluster near 10°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$132Data zakończenia
Sep 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate a minimum near 10–11°C for Buenos Aires on September 2, driven by a moderating northerly flow and limited cold-air advection behind a weak frontal passage. Market-implied odds favor 7°C or below at 49% because traders are weighting ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of radiational cooling under clearer skies or stronger southerly shifts than currently depicted. Historical climatology places early-September minima around 11°C, so any downward revision in guidance—such as increased low-level moisture or delayed warming—could quickly reinforce the cold-side probabilities already priced at 8–11°C. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus official SMN updates, will clarify whether steering patterns strengthen the cool anomaly or allow moderation toward the 26% consensus cluster near 10°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$132Data zakończenia
Sep 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate a minimum near 10–11°C for Buenos Aires on September 2, driven by a moderating northerly flow and limited cold-air advection behind a weak frontal passage. Market-implied odds favor 7°C or below at 49% because traders are weighting ensemble spread and potential model underestimation of radiational cooling under clearer skies or stronger southerly shifts than currently depicted. Historical climatology places early-September minima around 11°C, so any downward revision in guidance—such as increased low-level moisture or delayed warming—could quickly reinforce the cold-side probabilities already priced at 8–11°C. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus official SMN updates, will clarify whether steering patterns strengthen the cool anomaly or allow moderation toward the 26% consensus cluster near 10°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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