**Forecast models indicate a peak temperature in Warsaw on August 31 most likely between 26–27°C, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (27°C or higher at 60.5%, 26°C at 29%).** Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as GFS and national meteorological services show a warm southerly flow under initially partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs reaching the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. However, increasing cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms—driven by an approaching frontal system—are expected to limit further warming, with precipitation chances around 50–60% during peak heating hours. This caps the upside while keeping values well above seasonal normals for late August (typically 24–26°C). Recent model runs emphasize modest diurnal ranges and southwesterly winds near 2–4 m/s, reducing the likelihood of either extreme heat or sharp cooling. Traders appear to price in the balance between residual warmth from a prior high-pressure ridge and the moderating effects of convective activity, with lower outcomes (25°C or below) discounted due to the absence of strong cold-air advection in current guidance. Updated forecasts ahead of peak heating will be the key near-term driver.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
27°C or higher 62%
26°C 30%
25°C 8%
24°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
8%
26°C
30%
27°C or higher
62%
27°C or higher 62%
26°C 30%
25°C 8%
24°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$251 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$254 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$351 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$351 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$215 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$497 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$342 Wol.
1%
24°C
$326 Wol.
4%
25°C
$1,501 Wol.
8%
26°C
$1,119 Wol.
30%
27°C or higher
$3,336 Wol.
62%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a peak temperature in Warsaw on August 31 most likely between 26–27°C, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (27°C or higher at 60.5%, 26°C at 29%).**
Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as GFS and national meteorological services show a warm southerly flow under initially partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs reaching the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. However, increasing cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms—driven by an approaching frontal system—are expected to limit further warming, with precipitation chances around 50–60% during peak heating hours. This caps the upside while keeping values well above seasonal normals for late August (typically 24–26°C).
Recent model runs emphasize modest diurnal ranges and southwesterly winds near 2–4 m/s, reducing the likelihood of either extreme heat or sharp cooling. Traders appear to price in the balance between residual warmth from a prior high-pressure ridge and the moderating effects of convective activity, with lower outcomes (25°C or below) discounted due to the absence of strong cold-air advection in current guidance. Updated forecasts ahead of peak heating will be the key near-term driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$8,543Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a peak temperature in Warsaw on August 31 most likely between 26–27°C, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (27°C or higher at 60.5%, 26°C at 29%).**
Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as GFS and national meteorological services show a warm southerly flow under initially partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs reaching the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. However, increasing cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms—driven by an approaching frontal system—are expected to limit further warming, with precipitation chances around 50–60% during peak heating hours. This caps the upside while keeping values well above seasonal normals for late August (typically 24–26°C).
Recent model runs emphasize modest diurnal ranges and southwesterly winds near 2–4 m/s, reducing the likelihood of either extreme heat or sharp cooling. Traders appear to price in the balance between residual warmth from a prior high-pressure ridge and the moderating effects of convective activity, with lower outcomes (25°C or below) discounted due to the absence of strong cold-air advection in current guidance. Updated forecasts ahead of peak heating will be the key near-term driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$8,543Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a peak temperature in Warsaw on August 31 most likely between 26–27°C, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (27°C or higher at 60.5%, 26°C at 29%).** Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as GFS and national meteorological services show a warm southerly flow under initially partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs reaching the mid- to upper-20s Celsius. However, increasing cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms—driven by an approaching frontal system—are expected to limit further warming, with precipitation chances around 50–60% during peak heating hours. This caps the upside while keeping values well above seasonal normals for late August (typically 24–26°C). Recent model runs emphasize modest diurnal ranges and southwesterly winds near 2–4 m/s, reducing the likelihood of either extreme heat or sharp cooling. Traders appear to price in the balance between residual warmth from a prior high-pressure ridge and the moderating effects of convective activity, with lower outcomes (25°C or below) discounted due to the absence of strong cold-air advection in current guidance. Updated forecasts ahead of peak heating will be the key near-term driver.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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