Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
2% szansa
$64,698 Wol.
$64,698 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% szansa
$64,698 Wol.
$64,698 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Wolumen
$64,698Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$64,698Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show persistent gaps between U.S. demands and Iranian positions. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the 60-day negotiation window for a final deal passed without resolution on enrichment limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, or inspector access to damaged facilities. IAEA reports confirm no verification of enrichment activities or material since 2025, with Iran maintaining its asserted right to enrich while denying full site access and continuing limited construction at key locations. The short remaining timeline and entrenched verification disputes reinforce the consensus reflected in market pricing. A last-minute breakthrough in bilateral talks or major Iranian concession on enrichment could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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