Iran maintains its longstanding position that it retains the right to uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy needs under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a core issue deferred to final negotiations in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That interim accord set a 60-day window for talks on down-blending Iran's stockpiles under IAEA supervision and broader limits, but produced no commitment to halt enrichment activities or resolve verification gaps at damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow. Public statements from Iranian officials and U.S. demands for extended or permanent suspension have shown persistent gaps, with no verifiable progress or agreement reported since the summer framework. This backdrop drives trader consensus against any binding commitment by the September 30 deadline. A rapid final deal or major diplomatic concession could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
2% szansa
$64,609 Wol.
$64,609 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% szansa
$64,609 Wol.
$64,609 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains its longstanding position that it retains the right to uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy needs under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a core issue deferred to final negotiations in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That interim accord set a 60-day window for talks on down-blending Iran's stockpiles under IAEA supervision and broader limits, but produced no commitment to halt enrichment activities or resolve verification gaps at damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow. Public statements from Iranian officials and U.S. demands for extended or permanent suspension have shown persistent gaps, with no verifiable progress or agreement reported since the summer framework. This backdrop drives trader consensus against any binding commitment by the September 30 deadline. A rapid final deal or major diplomatic concession could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Wolumen
$64,609Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains its longstanding position that it retains the right to uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy needs under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a core issue deferred to final negotiations in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That interim accord set a 60-day window for talks on down-blending Iran's stockpiles under IAEA supervision and broader limits, but produced no commitment to halt enrichment activities or resolve verification gaps at damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow. Public statements from Iranian officials and U.S. demands for extended or permanent suspension have shown persistent gaps, with no verifiable progress or agreement reported since the summer framework. This backdrop drives trader consensus against any binding commitment by the September 30 deadline. A rapid final deal or major diplomatic concession could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$64,609Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains its longstanding position that it retains the right to uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy needs under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a core issue deferred to final negotiations in the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. That interim accord set a 60-day window for talks on down-blending Iran's stockpiles under IAEA supervision and broader limits, but produced no commitment to halt enrichment activities or resolve verification gaps at damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow. Public statements from Iranian officials and U.S. demands for extended or permanent suspension have shown persistent gaps, with no verifiable progress or agreement reported since the summer framework. This backdrop drives trader consensus against any binding commitment by the September 30 deadline. A rapid final deal or major diplomatic concession could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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