Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress tanker and commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits averaging just 10–15 vessels in recent weeks versus pre-conflict levels near 130. IRGC route mandates, lingering mine risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and renewed sanctions exposure have stalled recovery since the June MOU, keeping most flows dark or rerouted while limiting sanctioned Iranian crude exports. These dynamics create tight clustering around lower outcome bins for the week of September 7, as traders weigh modest corridor reopenings against persistent security and compliance barriers that could produce further volatility or last-minute shifts in observed volumes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
<20 26%
20-24 20%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 13, 2026
<20
26%
20-24
20%
25-29
19%
30-34
13%
35-39
12%
40+
10%
<20 26%
20-24 20%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 13, 2026
<20
$824 Wol.
26%
20-24
$237 Wol.
20%
25-29
$325 Wol.
19%
30-34
$217 Wol.
13%
35-39
$962 Wol.
12%
40+
$234 Wol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress tanker and commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits averaging just 10–15 vessels in recent weeks versus pre-conflict levels near 130. IRGC route mandates, lingering mine risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and renewed sanctions exposure have stalled recovery since the June MOU, keeping most flows dark or rerouted while limiting sanctioned Iranian crude exports. These dynamics create tight clustering around lower outcome bins for the week of September 7, as traders weigh modest corridor reopenings against persistent security and compliance barriers that could produce further volatility or last-minute shifts in observed volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,799Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress tanker and commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits averaging just 10–15 vessels in recent weeks versus pre-conflict levels near 130. IRGC route mandates, lingering mine risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and renewed sanctions exposure have stalled recovery since the June MOU, keeping most flows dark or rerouted while limiting sanctioned Iranian crude exports. These dynamics create tight clustering around lower outcome bins for the week of September 7, as traders weigh modest corridor reopenings against persistent security and compliance barriers that could produce further volatility or last-minute shifts in observed volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$2,799Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress tanker and commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with visible daily transits averaging just 10–15 vessels in recent weeks versus pre-conflict levels near 130. IRGC route mandates, lingering mine risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and renewed sanctions exposure have stalled recovery since the June MOU, keeping most flows dark or rerouted while limiting sanctioned Iranian crude exports. These dynamics create tight clustering around lower outcome bins for the week of September 7, as traders weigh modest corridor reopenings against persistent security and compliance barriers that could produce further volatility or last-minute shifts in observed volumes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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