Recent numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, position 29°C as the leading outcome with 63% market-implied probability by forecasting a daily maximum near that threshold under partly cloudy skies and light northeast flow. Current observations show morning temperatures around 26–28°C with dew points near 20–22°C and humidity 50–70%, consistent with seasonal late-summer patterns that rarely push extremes on this date. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 28–30°C, supporting the combined 96% probability on those three bins, while lower odds on 31°C+ reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloud cover. Updated forecasts and official station readings from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 13?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 13?
29°C 60%
30°C 34%
28°C 6%
31°C 6%
NOWE
$36,549 Wol.
NOWE
$36,549 Wol.
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
6%
29°C
60%
30°C
34%
31°C
6%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 60%
30°C 34%
28°C 6%
31°C 6%
NOWE
$36,549 Wol.
NOWE
$36,549 Wol.
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
$1,995 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$5,985 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$8,663 Wol.
6%
29°C
$4,137 Wol.
60%
30°C
$8,110 Wol.
34%
31°C
$4,011 Wol.
6%
32°C
$3,116 Wol.
1%
33°C
$145 Wol.
<1%
34°C
$106 Wol.
<1%
35°C
$143 Wol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$138 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, position 29°C as the leading outcome with 63% market-implied probability by forecasting a daily maximum near that threshold under partly cloudy skies and light northeast flow. Current observations show morning temperatures around 26–28°C with dew points near 20–22°C and humidity 50–70%, consistent with seasonal late-summer patterns that rarely push extremes on this date. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 28–30°C, supporting the combined 96% probability on those three bins, while lower odds on 31°C+ reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloud cover. Updated forecasts and official station readings from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$36,549Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, position 29°C as the leading outcome with 63% market-implied probability by forecasting a daily maximum near that threshold under partly cloudy skies and light northeast flow. Current observations show morning temperatures around 26–28°C with dew points near 20–22°C and humidity 50–70%, consistent with seasonal late-summer patterns that rarely push extremes on this date. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 28–30°C, supporting the combined 96% probability on those three bins, while lower odds on 31°C+ reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloud cover. Updated forecasts and official station readings from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$36,549Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, position 29°C as the leading outcome with 63% market-implied probability by forecasting a daily maximum near that threshold under partly cloudy skies and light northeast flow. Current observations show morning temperatures around 26–28°C with dew points near 20–22°C and humidity 50–70%, consistent with seasonal late-summer patterns that rarely push extremes on this date. Model consensus narrows the likely range to 28–30°C, supporting the combined 96% probability on those three bins, while lower odds on 31°C+ reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloud cover. Updated forecasts and official station readings from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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