Recent forecasts from sources including AEMET-aligned models and global ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Light easterly winds and stable high pressure limit warm advection or convective heating, consistent with the post-summer cooling trend after an extremely warm 2026 season. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 28°C and 27.5% for 27°C, aligns with these model outputs and historical September averages around 26°C, while lower odds for 29°C or higher account for minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight may refine the exact peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 53%
27°C 28%
29°C 15%
26°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
28%
28°C
53%
29°C
15%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 53%
27°C 28%
29°C 15%
26°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$103 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$103 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$280 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$85 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$374 Wol.
4%
27°C
$1,400 Wol.
28%
28°C
$829 Wol.
53%
29°C
$1,183 Wol.
15%
30°C
$85 Wol.
1%
31°C
$91 Wol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$338 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including AEMET-aligned models and global ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Light easterly winds and stable high pressure limit warm advection or convective heating, consistent with the post-summer cooling trend after an extremely warm 2026 season. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 28°C and 27.5% for 27°C, aligns with these model outputs and historical September averages around 26°C, while lower odds for 29°C or higher account for minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight may refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,871Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including AEMET-aligned models and global ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Light easterly winds and stable high pressure limit warm advection or convective heating, consistent with the post-summer cooling trend after an extremely warm 2026 season. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 28°C and 27.5% for 27°C, aligns with these model outputs and historical September averages around 26°C, while lower odds for 29°C or higher account for minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight may refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$4,871Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including AEMET-aligned models and global ensembles indicate a daily maximum near 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18, driven by northeasterly flow under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Light easterly winds and stable high pressure limit warm advection or convective heating, consistent with the post-summer cooling trend after an extremely warm 2026 season. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51.5% implied probability for 28°C and 27.5% for 27°C, aligns with these model outputs and historical September averages around 26°C, while lower odds for 29°C or higher account for minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread. Updated guidance expected overnight may refine the exact peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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