Skip to main content
icon for トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？
政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？

icon for トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？
政治·トランプ

トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？

12月 31

1月 20, 2029

12月 31

1月 20, 2029

はい

2% 確率
Polymarket

$1,003,164 Vol.

はい

2% 確率
Polymarket

$1,003,164 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House following the 2024 elections stands as the central driver behind the 97.9% trader consensus that Trump will not face impeachment by the end of 2026. The majority party has strong institutional incentives to shield its president from articles of impeachment, and historical precedent shows such actions require either unified opposition or significant internal defections that remain absent. The November 2026 midterms could theoretically shift House composition, yet the narrow window between election results and year-end reduces the practical scope for proceedings. Late-breaking developments such as major scandals or sudden erosion of party support could still introduce volatility, though current political alignments make these outcomes low-probability within the resolution period.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
音量
$1,003,164
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Republican control of the House following the 2024 elections stands as the central driver behind the 97.9% trader consensus that Trump will not face impeachment by the end of 2026. The majority party has strong institutional incentives to shield its president from articles of impeachment, and historical precedent shows such actions require either unified opposition or significant internal defections that remain absent. The November 2026 midterms could theoretically shift House composition, yet the narrow window between election results and year-end reduces the practical scope for proceedings. Late-breaking developments such as major scandals or sudden erosion of party support could still introduce volatility, though current political alignments make these outcomes low-probability within the resolution period.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
音量
$1,003,164
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

関連

icon for Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?

<1%
icon for ピート・ヘグセスは8月31日までに国防長官を退任するか？

ピート・ヘグセスは8月31日までに国防長官を退任するか？

3%
はい
icon for 中国は2027年6月30日までに台湾を侵攻しますか？

中国は2027年6月30日までに台湾を侵攻しますか？

9%
はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「トランプは2026年末までに弾劾されますか？」で2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、2¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に2%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？」は$1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jul 25, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？」の現在のリーダーは「トランプは2026年末までに弾劾されますか？」でわずか2%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ氏は2026年末までに弾劾されるのか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。