**Trader consensus on this market heavily favors “No” at 90.2% because the remaining window until the end of 2026 is short and no major new accession appears imminent.** The most recent addition, Kazakhstan’s symbolic November 2025 accession, already occurred, and subsequent diplomatic activity has not produced another signatory. Saudi Arabia—the highest-profile potential member—has consistently conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a position reiterated by Riyadh officials even amid U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear agreement to the Accords. Efforts to expand the framework through symbolic joins by countries such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states remain in discussion but have not advanced to formal steps. Broader regional dynamics, including the aftermath of conflicts involving Gaza and Iran, have reinforced Saudi and other states’ caution, while public and elite sentiment in potential candidate countries continues to tie progress to the Palestinian issue. With only a few months left and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing ceremonies on the immediate horizon, traders view the probability of a new country formally joining before 2027 as low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
10% 確率
$303,297 Vol.
$303,297 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
10% 確率
$303,297 Vol.
$303,297 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on this market heavily favors “No” at 90.2% because the remaining window until the end of 2026 is short and no major new accession appears imminent.**
The most recent addition, Kazakhstan’s symbolic November 2025 accession, already occurred, and subsequent diplomatic activity has not produced another signatory. Saudi Arabia—the highest-profile potential member—has consistently conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a position reiterated by Riyadh officials even amid U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear agreement to the Accords.
Efforts to expand the framework through symbolic joins by countries such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states remain in discussion but have not advanced to formal steps. Broader regional dynamics, including the aftermath of conflicts involving Gaza and Iran, have reinforced Saudi and other states’ caution, while public and elite sentiment in potential candidate countries continues to tie progress to the Palestinian issue.
With only a few months left and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing ceremonies on the immediate horizon, traders view the probability of a new country formally joining before 2027 as low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
音量
$303,297終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on this market heavily favors “No” at 90.2% because the remaining window until the end of 2026 is short and no major new accession appears imminent.**
The most recent addition, Kazakhstan’s symbolic November 2025 accession, already occurred, and subsequent diplomatic activity has not produced another signatory. Saudi Arabia—the highest-profile potential member—has consistently conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a position reiterated by Riyadh officials even amid U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear agreement to the Accords.
Efforts to expand the framework through symbolic joins by countries such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states remain in discussion but have not advanced to formal steps. Broader regional dynamics, including the aftermath of conflicts involving Gaza and Iran, have reinforced Saudi and other states’ caution, while public and elite sentiment in potential candidate countries continues to tie progress to the Palestinian issue.
With only a few months left and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing ceremonies on the immediate horizon, traders view the probability of a new country formally joining before 2027 as low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$303,297終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on this market heavily favors “No” at 90.2% because the remaining window until the end of 2026 is short and no major new accession appears imminent.** The most recent addition, Kazakhstan’s symbolic November 2025 accession, already occurred, and subsequent diplomatic activity has not produced another signatory. Saudi Arabia—the highest-profile potential member—has consistently conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a position reiterated by Riyadh officials even amid U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear agreement to the Accords. Efforts to expand the framework through symbolic joins by countries such as Azerbaijan or additional Central Asian states remain in discussion but have not advanced to formal steps. Broader regional dynamics, including the aftermath of conflicts involving Gaza and Iran, have reinforced Saudi and other states’ caution, while public and elite sentiment in potential candidate countries continues to tie progress to the Palestinian issue. With only a few months left and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing ceremonies on the immediate horizon, traders view the probability of a new country formally joining before 2027 as low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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