President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$795,287 Vol.
2026/12/31
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$795,287 Vol.
2026年9月30日
$57,555 Vol.
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$795,287終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$795,287終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities, initially raised prospects of ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly clarified that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-explosive systems tests consistent with the zero-yield standard, not full-yield explosive detonations. The New START Treaty's February 2026 expiration, ongoing stockpile stewardship certifications confirming reliability without explosive tests, and congressional efforts to codify the moratorium have reinforced trader caution. No explosive test has occurred as of September 2026, though infrastructure readiness and annual lab certifications remain key variables that could influence future probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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