Traders assign a 95.5% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by October 31 because bilateral and trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026. Core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk and the scope of postwar security guarantees have produced no breakthroughs despite U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Formal talks halted after February amid the Iran conflict and subsequent U.S. assessments that further rounds yielded no progress. Ongoing military operations and rejection of recent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader meetings reinforce the current impasse. A rapid diplomatic reversal, unexpected ceasefire, or new high-level mediation could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/31
はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 95.5% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by October 31 because bilateral and trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026. Core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk and the scope of postwar security guarantees have produced no breakthroughs despite U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Formal talks halted after February amid the Iran conflict and subsequent U.S. assessments that further rounds yielded no progress. Ongoing military operations and rejection of recent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader meetings reinforce the current impasse. A rapid diplomatic reversal, unexpected ceasefire, or new high-level mediation could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
音量
$712終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 95.5% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by October 31 because bilateral and trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026. Core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk and the scope of postwar security guarantees have produced no breakthroughs despite U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Formal talks halted after February amid the Iran conflict and subsequent U.S. assessments that further rounds yielded no progress. Ongoing military operations and rejection of recent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader meetings reinforce the current impasse. A rapid diplomatic reversal, unexpected ceasefire, or new high-level mediation could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$712終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by October 31 because bilateral and trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026. Core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk and the scope of postwar security guarantees have produced no breakthroughs despite U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Formal talks halted after February amid the Iran conflict and subsequent U.S. assessments that further rounds yielded no progress. Ongoing military operations and rejection of recent Ukrainian proposals for direct leader meetings reinforce the current impasse. A rapid diplomatic reversal, unexpected ceasefire, or new high-level mediation could still shift the outcome before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問