Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary for New York's 17th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who ran unopposed on his side. The Hudson Valley swing district, which Lawler carried by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up ratings from major forecasters and features mixed recent polling, including a Republican-sponsored survey showing Lawler ahead by five points and a Democratic-backed poll giving Conley a six-point edge. Midterm dynamics, Lawler's moderate positioning, and Conley's background as an Army veteran contribute to trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 66 percent implied probability, though the race's competitiveness leaves room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
66%
共和党
35%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$4,063 Vol.
66%
共和党
$5,875 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary for New York's 17th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who ran unopposed on his side. The Hudson Valley swing district, which Lawler carried by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up ratings from major forecasters and features mixed recent polling, including a Republican-sponsored survey showing Lawler ahead by five points and a Democratic-backed poll giving Conley a six-point edge. Midterm dynamics, Lawler's moderate positioning, and Conley's background as an Army veteran contribute to trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 66 percent implied probability, though the race's competitiveness leaves room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$9,938終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary for New York's 17th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who ran unopposed on his side. The Hudson Valley swing district, which Lawler carried by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up ratings from major forecasters and features mixed recent polling, including a Republican-sponsored survey showing Lawler ahead by five points and a Democratic-backed poll giving Conley a six-point edge. Midterm dynamics, Lawler's moderate positioning, and Conley's background as an Army veteran contribute to trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 66 percent implied probability, though the race's competitiveness leaves room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,938終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary for New York's 17th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler, who ran unopposed on his side. The Hudson Valley swing district, which Lawler carried by a narrow margin in 2024, carries toss-up ratings from major forecasters and features mixed recent polling, including a Republican-sponsored survey showing Lawler ahead by five points and a Democratic-backed poll giving Conley a six-point edge. Midterm dynamics, Lawler's moderate positioning, and Conley's background as an Army veteran contribute to trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 66 percent implied probability, though the race's competitiveness leaves room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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