California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$42,111 Vol.
$42,111 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$42,111 Vol.
$42,111 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$18,223 Vol.
94%
共和党
$23,888 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$42,111終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$42,111終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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