Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th district, combined with its consistent Republican lean and his unopposed primary, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s partisan voting index, Smith’s fundraising edge, and recent ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, Smith’s health decline, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/02
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/02
共和党
$5,448 Vol.
94%
民主党
$3,991 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th district, combined with its consistent Republican lean and his unopposed primary, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s partisan voting index, Smith’s fundraising edge, and recent ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, Smith’s health decline, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$9,439終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th district, combined with its consistent Republican lean and his unopposed primary, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s partisan voting index, Smith’s fundraising edge, and recent ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, Smith’s health decline, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,439終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th district, combined with its consistent Republican lean and his unopposed primary, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The district’s partisan voting index, Smith’s fundraising edge, and recent ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Safe Republican further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election. Democratic nominee Rachel Peace faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, Smith’s health decline, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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