The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$31,374 Vol.
$31,374 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$31,374 Vol.
$31,374 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$15,967 Vol.
94%
共和党
$15,408 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$31,374終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$31,374終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Recent primary results advanced Democrat Jacqui Irwin as the clear frontrunner against Republican Samuel Gallucci, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Historical turnout patterns in the Ventura County-based district and limited Republican infrastructure further support the wide margin. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given current polling trends and fundraising data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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