**The trader consensus pricing Democratic Party at 77% to win Missouri’s 5th congressional district reflects Emanuel Cleaver’s long incumbency, name recognition in the Kansas City core, and the district’s historical Democratic performance, even after the new map added rural counties.** Cleaver ran unopposed in the August 4 Democratic primary, while Rick Brattin emerged from a crowded Republican primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican following mid-decade redistricting that shifted its partisan lean, creating a notable gap between market-implied probabilities and traditional models. With the November 3 general election still ahead and limited independent polling available, traders appear to weigh Cleaver’s established local base and turnout potential more heavily than the adjusted boundaries at this stage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$19,265 Vol.
$19,265 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
77%
共和党
18%
$19,265 Vol.
$19,265 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$6,436 Vol.
77%
共和党
$12,829 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**The trader consensus pricing Democratic Party at 77% to win Missouri’s 5th congressional district reflects Emanuel Cleaver’s long incumbency, name recognition in the Kansas City core, and the district’s historical Democratic performance, even after the new map added rural counties.** Cleaver ran unopposed in the August 4 Democratic primary, while Rick Brattin emerged from a crowded Republican primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican following mid-decade redistricting that shifted its partisan lean, creating a notable gap between market-implied probabilities and traditional models. With the November 3 general election still ahead and limited independent polling available, traders appear to weigh Cleaver’s established local base and turnout potential more heavily than the adjusted boundaries at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
音量
$19,265終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**The trader consensus pricing Democratic Party at 77% to win Missouri’s 5th congressional district reflects Emanuel Cleaver’s long incumbency, name recognition in the Kansas City core, and the district’s historical Democratic performance, even after the new map added rural counties.** Cleaver ran unopposed in the August 4 Democratic primary, while Rick Brattin emerged from a crowded Republican primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican following mid-decade redistricting that shifted its partisan lean, creating a notable gap between market-implied probabilities and traditional models. With the November 3 general election still ahead and limited independent polling available, traders appear to weigh Cleaver’s established local base and turnout potential more heavily than the adjusted boundaries at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,265終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**The trader consensus pricing Democratic Party at 77% to win Missouri’s 5th congressional district reflects Emanuel Cleaver’s long incumbency, name recognition in the Kansas City core, and the district’s historical Democratic performance, even after the new map added rural counties.** Cleaver ran unopposed in the August 4 Democratic primary, while Rick Brattin emerged from a crowded Republican primary. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican following mid-decade redistricting that shifted its partisan lean, creating a notable gap between market-implied probabilities and traditional models. With the November 3 general election still ahead and limited independent polling available, traders appear to weigh Cleaver’s established local base and turnout potential more heavily than the adjusted boundaries at this stage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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