The Minas Gerais Senate race for two seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 4, 2026 election, with recent Datafolha polling showing Marília Campos (PT) at 11%, incumbent Carlos Viana (PSD) at 8%, Domingos Sávio (PL) at 6%, Marcelo Aro (PP) at 5%, and a long tail of single-digit or lower contenders including Ana Luiza do MLB and Marco Antônio Superman. Mid-August candidate registrations with the TSE and asset declarations have kept over a dozen viable names active, preventing consolidation. This broad dispersion, combined with undecided voters and limited campaign momentum, sustains tight trader-implied probabilities for second place across leading options while underscoring how late polling shifts, alliance announcements, or turnout variations could reorder the field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Carlos Viana 47%
Marília Campos 38%
Domingos Sávio 15.2%
Marcelo Aro 3.9%
$18,741 Vol.
$18,741 Vol.
Carlos Viana
47%
Marília Campos
38%
Domingos Sávio
15%
Marcelo Aro
4%
Marcelo Heringer
<1%
Marco Antônio Superman
<1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
<1%
Ana Luiza do MLB
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
<1%
Tião Pessoa
<1%
Áurea Carolina
<1%
Carlin Moura
<1%
Carlos Viana 47%
Marília Campos 38%
Domingos Sávio 15.2%
Marcelo Aro 3.9%
$18,741 Vol.
$18,741 Vol.
Carlos Viana
47%
Marília Campos
38%
Domingos Sávio
15%
Marcelo Aro
4%
Marcelo Heringer
<1%
Marco Antônio Superman
<1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
<1%
Ana Luiza do MLB
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
<1%
Tião Pessoa
<1%
Áurea Carolina
<1%
Carlin Moura
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Minas Gerais Senate race for two seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 4, 2026 election, with recent Datafolha polling showing Marília Campos (PT) at 11%, incumbent Carlos Viana (PSD) at 8%, Domingos Sávio (PL) at 6%, Marcelo Aro (PP) at 5%, and a long tail of single-digit or lower contenders including Ana Luiza do MLB and Marco Antônio Superman. Mid-August candidate registrations with the TSE and asset declarations have kept over a dozen viable names active, preventing consolidation. This broad dispersion, combined with undecided voters and limited campaign momentum, sustains tight trader-implied probabilities for second place across leading options while underscoring how late polling shifts, alliance announcements, or turnout variations could reorder the field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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