Recent polling from early August places former governor Mauro Mendes and state deputy Janaina Riva in a narrow lead for the two Senate seats, with several other candidates clustered in the low-to-mid teens amid fragmented voter preferences. The race for second place remains tightly contested because each voter selects two names and support is split across more than a dozen contenders whose candidacies were only finalized after mid-August party conventions. The official campaign period began in mid-August, leaving limited time for any single candidate to consolidate second-preference votes before the October 4 election. Trader consensus reflected in the current probabilities captures this uncertainty, with separation likely hinging on turnout patterns, late endorsements, or shifts in second-choice consolidation among the trailing group.