Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アルトゥール・エンリケ 90%
ファラー・メスキータ 3.3%
ロジ・アイルス 3.3%
ソルダード・サンパイオ 3.2%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
アルトゥール・エンリケ
90%
ファラー・メスキータ
3%
ロジ・アイルス
3%
ソルダード・サンパイオ
3%
クレビオ・ジェヌイーノ
1%
アルトゥール・エンリケ 90%
ファラー・メスキータ 3.3%
ロジ・アイルス 3.3%
ソルダード・サンパイオ 3.2%
新規
新規
2026/10/04
アルトゥール・エンリケ
$2,687 Vol.
90%
ファラー・メスキータ
$153 Vol.
3%
ロジ・アイルス
$222 Vol.
3%
ソルダード・サンパイオ
$183 Vol.
3%
クレビオ・ジェヌイーノ
$222 Vol.
1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
音量
$3,467終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$3,467終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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