Recent polling in the Federal District Senate race shows a fragmented field for the two seats, with Leila do Vôlei, Michelle Bolsonaro, Erika Kokay, and Bia Kicis posting the highest vote shares in July surveys while several others remain in single digits or low teens. PL’s decision to run both Michelle Bolsonaro and Bia Kicis creates a strong right-wing bloc, yet incumbency advantages for Leila and support for PT’s Erika Kokay keep the ordering fluid. Candidate registration deadlines and party conventions concluded in early August without major shifts, leaving limited time for new developments to reorder preferences before October voting. This balance sustains tight implied probabilities for second place among the leading names, with any late polling movement or turnout differences among key voter groups likely to determine the final ranking.