Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding lead in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic nominee roughly 90% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas, has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by more than 7 points in a seat that favored Kamala Harris. Both major-party candidates—Scholten and Republican nominee Terri DeBoer—advanced through the August 4 primaries without significant opposition. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s modest partisan lean, Scholten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and limited signs of a competitive Republican challenge. A national political shift or unexpected late-cycle development could still narrow the margin, though current conditions point to structural headwinds for the GOP nominee.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,019 Vol.
$16,019 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
91%
共和党
7%
$16,019 Vol.
$16,019 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$12,709 Vol.
91%
共和党
$3,310 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding lead in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic nominee roughly 90% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas, has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by more than 7 points in a seat that favored Kamala Harris. Both major-party candidates—Scholten and Republican nominee Terri DeBoer—advanced through the August 4 primaries without significant opposition. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s modest partisan lean, Scholten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and limited signs of a competitive Republican challenge. A national political shift or unexpected late-cycle development could still narrow the margin, though current conditions point to structural headwinds for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
音量
$16,019終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding lead in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic nominee roughly 90% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas, has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by more than 7 points in a seat that favored Kamala Harris. Both major-party candidates—Scholten and Republican nominee Terri DeBoer—advanced through the August 4 primaries without significant opposition. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s modest partisan lean, Scholten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and limited signs of a competitive Republican challenge. A national political shift or unexpected late-cycle development could still narrow the margin, though current conditions point to structural headwinds for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,019終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding lead in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, where traders assign the Democratic nominee roughly 90% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan district, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding areas, has trended steadily Democratic in recent cycles, with Scholten securing reelection in 2024 by more than 7 points in a seat that favored Kamala Harris. Both major-party candidates—Scholten and Republican nominee Terri DeBoer—advanced through the August 4 primaries without significant opposition. Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s modest partisan lean, Scholten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and limited signs of a competitive Republican challenge. A national political shift or unexpected late-cycle development could still narrow the margin, though current conditions point to structural headwinds for the GOP nominee.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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