Starship's debut of Version 3 hardware on its twelfth flight test in late May 2026 highlights the program's ongoing iterative development phase, where each launch prioritizes propulsion upgrades, Raptor engine refinements, and orbital refueling demonstrations over high launch cadence. With only one flight completed in the first five months of the year amid repeated testing delays and regulatory reviews, trader consensus reflects realistic constraints on scaling production and operations quickly enough for double-digit successful ascents to space. Upcoming catalysts include potential booster catch attempts and additional V3 vehicles, yet historical test flight pacing and the need for demonstrated reliability before crewed or high-volume missions keep lower totals as the market's leading outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5未満 55%
5～6 21%
>16 6.3%
7～8 5.8%
$461,359 Vol.
$461,359 Vol.
2026/12/31
5未満
55%
5～6
21%
7～8
6%
9〜10
4%
11〜12
1%
13～14
4%
15〜16
2%
>16
6%
5未満 55%
5～6 21%
>16 6.3%
7～8 5.8%
$461,359 Vol.
$461,359 Vol.
2026/12/31
5未満
$92,231 Vol.
55%
5～6
$109,362 Vol.
21%
7～8
$153,544 Vol.
6%
9〜10
$56,998 Vol.
4%
11〜12
$4,946 Vol.
1%
13～14
$6,538 Vol.
4%
15〜16
$26,842 Vol.
2%
>16
$10,898 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's debut of Version 3 hardware on its twelfth flight test in late May 2026 highlights the program's ongoing iterative development phase, where each launch prioritizes propulsion upgrades, Raptor engine refinements, and orbital refueling demonstrations over high launch cadence. With only one flight completed in the first five months of the year amid repeated testing delays and regulatory reviews, trader consensus reflects realistic constraints on scaling production and operations quickly enough for double-digit successful ascents to space. Upcoming catalysts include potential booster catch attempts and additional V3 vehicles, yet historical test flight pacing and the need for demonstrated reliability before crewed or high-volume missions keep lower totals as the market's leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
音量
$461,359終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's debut of Version 3 hardware on its twelfth flight test in late May 2026 highlights the program's ongoing iterative development phase, where each launch prioritizes propulsion upgrades, Raptor engine refinements, and orbital refueling demonstrations over high launch cadence. With only one flight completed in the first five months of the year amid repeated testing delays and regulatory reviews, trader consensus reflects realistic constraints on scaling production and operations quickly enough for double-digit successful ascents to space. Upcoming catalysts include potential booster catch attempts and additional V3 vehicles, yet historical test flight pacing and the need for demonstrated reliability before crewed or high-volume missions keep lower totals as the market's leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$461,359終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Starship's debut of Version 3 hardware on its twelfth flight test in late May 2026 highlights the program's ongoing iterative development phase, where each launch prioritizes propulsion upgrades, Raptor engine refinements, and orbital refueling demonstrations over high launch cadence. With only one flight completed in the first five months of the year amid repeated testing delays and regulatory reviews, trader consensus reflects realistic constraints on scaling production and operations quickly enough for double-digit successful ascents to space. Upcoming catalysts include potential booster catch attempts and additional V3 vehicles, yet historical test flight pacing and the need for demonstrated reliability before crewed or high-volume missions keep lower totals as the market's leading outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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