Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Sentry and ESA’s NEODyS systems, along with ongoing optical and radar surveys, show no known near-Earth object on an impact trajectory capable of releasing that energy. Continuous monitoring of the catalogued population, combined with rapid follow-up of new detections, has ruled out threats of this scale well in advance. The absence of any credible close-approach warnings or impact-probability updates through mid-2026 reinforces the consensus. While an undetected small body or last-minute orbital revision could theoretically alter the outlook, current survey completeness and modeling precision make such surprises extremely unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$116,334 Vol.
$116,334 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$116,334 Vol.
$116,334 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Sentry and ESA’s NEODyS systems, along with ongoing optical and radar surveys, show no known near-Earth object on an impact trajectory capable of releasing that energy. Continuous monitoring of the catalogued population, combined with rapid follow-up of new detections, has ruled out threats of this scale well in advance. The absence of any credible close-approach warnings or impact-probability updates through mid-2026 reinforces the consensus. While an undetected small body or last-minute orbital revision could theoretically alter the outlook, current survey completeness and modeling precision make such surprises extremely unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$116,334終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Sentry and ESA’s NEODyS systems, along with ongoing optical and radar surveys, show no known near-Earth object on an impact trajectory capable of releasing that energy. Continuous monitoring of the catalogued population, combined with rapid follow-up of new detections, has ruled out threats of this scale well in advance. The absence of any credible close-approach warnings or impact-probability updates through mid-2026 reinforces the consensus. While an undetected small body or last-minute orbital revision could theoretically alter the outlook, current survey completeness and modeling precision make such surprises extremely unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$116,334終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to “No” for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Sentry and ESA’s NEODyS systems, along with ongoing optical and radar surveys, show no known near-Earth object on an impact trajectory capable of releasing that energy. Continuous monitoring of the catalogued population, combined with rapid follow-up of new detections, has ruled out threats of this scale well in advance. The absence of any credible close-approach warnings or impact-probability updates through mid-2026 reinforces the consensus. While an undetected small body or last-minute orbital revision could theoretically alter the outlook, current survey completeness and modeling precision make such surprises extremely unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問