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icon for 2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

icon for 2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

1st hottest 48%

2nd hottest 47%

4th or lower 39%

3rd hottest 23%

Polymarket
新規

1st hottest 48%

2nd hottest 47%

4th or lower 39%

3rd hottest 23%

Polymarket
新規

1st hottest

$1 Vol.

48%

2nd hottest

$1 Vol.

47%

3rd hottest

$36 Vol.

23%

4th or lower

$35 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Traders see closely matched probabilities for 2026 August 1–3 ranking among the top daily global temperature records because a developing El Niño is elevating baseline warmth while 2024 remains the benchmark year. Recent June 2026 data showed the month as the second-warmest on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, only narrowly behind 2024 amid European and North American heat waves that pushed regional anomalies above 3 °C. Daily averages for early August hinge on short-term factors including atmospheric circulation patterns, land-surface heating rates, and sea-surface temperature anomalies, with model consensus indicating near-record but not clearly unprecedented conditions. Uncertainty arises from natural variability and measurement precision in global datasets, leaving room for any of the top-four outcomes depending on final verified values from agencies like NOAA’s NCEI.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$73
終了日
2026/09/01
マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Traders see closely matched probabilities for 2026 August 1–3 ranking among the top daily global temperature records because a developing El Niño is elevating baseline warmth while 2024 remains the benchmark year. Recent June 2026 data showed the month as the second-warmest on record per NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus analyses, only narrowly behind 2024 amid European and North American heat waves that pushed regional anomalies above 3 °C. Daily averages for early August hinge on short-term factors including atmospheric circulation patterns, land-surface heating rates, and sea-surface temperature anomalies, with model consensus indicating near-record but not clearly unprecedented conditions. Uncertainty arises from natural variability and measurement precision in global datasets, leaving room for any of the top-four outcomes depending on final verified values from agencies like NOAA’s NCEI.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$73
終了日
2026/09/01
マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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よくある質問

「2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1st hottest」で48%、次いで「2nd hottest」が47%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、48¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に48%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Jul 28, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「1st hottest」で48%であり、市場がこの結果に48%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「2nd hottest」で47%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。