Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
21% 確率
$240,662 Vol.
$240,662 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
21% 確率
$240,662 Vol.
$240,662 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$240,662終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$240,662終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stringent resolution criteria—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—anchor the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” No qualifying events have occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring: 8.5+ quakes average roughly one per decade globally, while VEI 6 eruptions and Cat 5 U.S. landfalls occur even less often. Recent seismic activity, including a 7.4 magnitude event in Colombia and 6.8 in Japan, remains below threshold, and current atmospheric and eruptive conditions show no signals of imminent escalation. Model consensus and baseline climatology reinforce trader consensus that these thresholds are unlikely to be crossed by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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