SpaceX completed its record $75 billion IPO on June 12, 2026, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices has reaffirmed its standard 12-month public trading requirement for benchmark inclusion, rendering the company ineligible until at least mid-2027 regardless of its roughly $1.8 trillion initial market capitalization. Additional hurdles include the need for sustained U.S. GAAP profitability—currently absent amid elevated AI-related capex—and a free float above 10 percent, both of which remain unmet. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent against 2026 addition reflects these structural barriers and the index committee’s explicit decision against accelerating rules for mega-cap debuts. Low-probability tail risks include an unprecedented mid-year policy reversal by S&P or rapid profitability and share unlock that could theoretically compress the timeline, though neither appears imminent based on current filings and index precedents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$20,975 Vol.
$20,975 Vol.
2027/01/01
はい
5% 確率
$20,975 Vol.
$20,975 Vol.
2027/01/01
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $75 billion IPO on June 12, 2026, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices has reaffirmed its standard 12-month public trading requirement for benchmark inclusion, rendering the company ineligible until at least mid-2027 regardless of its roughly $1.8 trillion initial market capitalization. Additional hurdles include the need for sustained U.S. GAAP profitability—currently absent amid elevated AI-related capex—and a free float above 10 percent, both of which remain unmet. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent against 2026 addition reflects these structural barriers and the index committee’s explicit decision against accelerating rules for mega-cap debuts. Low-probability tail risks include an unprecedented mid-year policy reversal by S&P or rapid profitability and share unlock that could theoretically compress the timeline, though neither appears imminent based on current filings and index precedents.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
音量
$20,975終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $75 billion IPO on June 12, 2026, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices has reaffirmed its standard 12-month public trading requirement for benchmark inclusion, rendering the company ineligible until at least mid-2027 regardless of its roughly $1.8 trillion initial market capitalization. Additional hurdles include the need for sustained U.S. GAAP profitability—currently absent amid elevated AI-related capex—and a free float above 10 percent, both of which remain unmet. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent against 2026 addition reflects these structural barriers and the index committee’s explicit decision against accelerating rules for mega-cap debuts. Low-probability tail risks include an unprecedented mid-year policy reversal by S&P or rapid profitability and share unlock that could theoretically compress the timeline, though neither appears imminent based on current filings and index precedents.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
音量
$20,975終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX completed its record $75 billion IPO on June 12, 2026, yet S&P Dow Jones Indices has reaffirmed its standard 12-month public trading requirement for benchmark inclusion, rendering the company ineligible until at least mid-2027 regardless of its roughly $1.8 trillion initial market capitalization. Additional hurdles include the need for sustained U.S. GAAP profitability—currently absent amid elevated AI-related capex—and a free float above 10 percent, both of which remain unmet. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent against 2026 addition reflects these structural barriers and the index committee’s explicit decision against accelerating rules for mega-cap debuts. Low-probability tail risks include an unprecedented mid-year policy reversal by S&P or rapid profitability and share unlock that could theoretically compress the timeline, though neither appears imminent based on current filings and index precedents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問