Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by May nonfarm payrolls beating expectations, has driven market-implied odds toward holding the federal funds rate at the current 3.50-3.75% target range through the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Traders in futures and prediction markets now assign roughly even odds to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish repricing after earlier expectations of cuts faded. The June decision is expected to maintain the status quo, with focus shifting to subsequent data releases and the September meeting for any policy pivot signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$157,502 Vol.
2026/12/09
6月会合
1%
7月会合
8%
9月会合
26%
10月会合
41%
$157,502 Vol.
6月会合
$16,779 Vol.
1%
7月会合
$2,641 Vol.
8%
9月会合
$4,014 Vol.
26%
10月会合
$2,760 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by May nonfarm payrolls beating expectations, has driven market-implied odds toward holding the federal funds rate at the current 3.50-3.75% target range through the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Traders in futures and prediction markets now assign roughly even odds to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish repricing after earlier expectations of cuts faded. The June decision is expected to maintain the status quo, with focus shifting to subsequent data releases and the September meeting for any policy pivot signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$157,502終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by May nonfarm payrolls beating expectations, has driven market-implied odds toward holding the federal funds rate at the current 3.50-3.75% target range through the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Traders in futures and prediction markets now assign roughly even odds to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish repricing after earlier expectations of cuts faded. The June decision is expected to maintain the status quo, with focus shifting to subsequent data releases and the September meeting for any policy pivot signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$157,502終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market evidenced by May nonfarm payrolls beating expectations, has driven market-implied odds toward holding the federal funds rate at the current 3.50-3.75% target range through the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. Traders in futures and prediction markets now assign roughly even odds to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, reflecting a hawkish repricing after earlier expectations of cuts faded. The June decision is expected to maintain the status quo, with focus shifting to subsequent data releases and the September meeting for any policy pivot signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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