Recent military escalations between the U.S. and Iran, including strikes on tankers and coastal targets in early September 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied odds toward lower transit buckets. Pre-conflict baselines of 130-plus daily crossings remain distant, with AIS data showing just three transits in a recent 24-hour window amid IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions reimposition, and rerouting risks. Trader consensus aggregates these persistent geopolitical frictions and uncertain ceasefire durability into the current distribution, where probabilities cluster around subdued volumes. Key near-term catalysts include any further kinetic incidents or diplomatic signals ahead of the September 7 resolution week, underscoring how energy chokepoint dynamics continue to weigh on shipping flows and related commodity pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20未満 26%
20〜24 20%
25〜29 19%
30〜34 13%
新規
新規
2026/09/13
20未満
26%
20〜24
20%
25〜29
19%
30〜34
13%
35〜39
12%
40隻以上
10%
20未満 26%
20〜24 20%
25〜29 19%
30〜34 13%
新規
新規
2026/09/13
20未満
$824 Vol.
26%
20〜24
$237 Vol.
20%
25〜29
$325 Vol.
19%
30〜34
$217 Vol.
13%
35〜39
$962 Vol.
12%
40隻以上
$234 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent military escalations between the U.S. and Iran, including strikes on tankers and coastal targets in early September 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied odds toward lower transit buckets. Pre-conflict baselines of 130-plus daily crossings remain distant, with AIS data showing just three transits in a recent 24-hour window amid IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions reimposition, and rerouting risks. Trader consensus aggregates these persistent geopolitical frictions and uncertain ceasefire durability into the current distribution, where probabilities cluster around subdued volumes. Key near-term catalysts include any further kinetic incidents or diplomatic signals ahead of the September 7 resolution week, underscoring how energy chokepoint dynamics continue to weigh on shipping flows and related commodity pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
音量
$2,799終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent military escalations between the U.S. and Iran, including strikes on tankers and coastal targets in early September 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied odds toward lower transit buckets. Pre-conflict baselines of 130-plus daily crossings remain distant, with AIS data showing just three transits in a recent 24-hour window amid IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions reimposition, and rerouting risks. Trader consensus aggregates these persistent geopolitical frictions and uncertain ceasefire durability into the current distribution, where probabilities cluster around subdued volumes. Key near-term catalysts include any further kinetic incidents or diplomatic signals ahead of the September 7 resolution week, underscoring how energy chokepoint dynamics continue to weigh on shipping flows and related commodity pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$2,799終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent military escalations between the U.S. and Iran, including strikes on tankers and coastal targets in early September 2026, have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the market-implied odds toward lower transit buckets. Pre-conflict baselines of 130-plus daily crossings remain distant, with AIS data showing just three transits in a recent 24-hour window amid IRGC enforcement actions, sanctions reimposition, and rerouting risks. Trader consensus aggregates these persistent geopolitical frictions and uncertain ceasefire durability into the current distribution, where probabilities cluster around subdued volumes. Key near-term catalysts include any further kinetic incidents or diplomatic signals ahead of the September 7 resolution week, underscoring how energy chokepoint dynamics continue to weigh on shipping flows and related commodity pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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