Persistent geopolitical conflict and elevated maritime security risks have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced weekly transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with the 20-39 bin holding a 69% implied probability. Ongoing U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island and retaliatory attacks on tankers exiting the waterway on August 31 and September 1, have kept commercial traffic at single-digit daily levels, as confirmed by Kpler and IMF PortWatch data showing just 3–7 transits on recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85. Heightened mine threats, Iranian blacklists targeting non-compliant vessels, sanctions exposure, and operator rerouting or AIS suppression continue to suppress volumes, with UKMTO noting roughly 90% declines from norms. Market-implied odds reflect these verified disruptions rather than any near-term normalization, as upcoming data releases for the August 31–September 6 period are expected to confirm the constrained environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20-39 70%
<20 27%
40-59 4.2%
60-79 1.0%
$42,399 Vol.
$42,399 Vol.
2026/09/06
<20
27%
20-39
70%
40-59
4%
60-79
1%
80+
1%
20-39 70%
<20 27%
40-59 4.2%
60-79 1.0%
$42,399 Vol.
$42,399 Vol.
2026/09/06
<20
$11,546 Vol.
27%
20-39
$23,287 Vol.
70%
40-59
$4,422 Vol.
4%
60-79
$1,765 Vol.
1%
80+
$1,379 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical conflict and elevated maritime security risks have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced weekly transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with the 20-39 bin holding a 69% implied probability. Ongoing U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island and retaliatory attacks on tankers exiting the waterway on August 31 and September 1, have kept commercial traffic at single-digit daily levels, as confirmed by Kpler and IMF PortWatch data showing just 3–7 transits on recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85. Heightened mine threats, Iranian blacklists targeting non-compliant vessels, sanctions exposure, and operator rerouting or AIS suppression continue to suppress volumes, with UKMTO noting roughly 90% declines from norms. Market-implied odds reflect these verified disruptions rather than any near-term normalization, as upcoming data releases for the August 31–September 6 period are expected to confirm the constrained environment.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
音量
$42,399終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical conflict and elevated maritime security risks have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced weekly transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with the 20-39 bin holding a 69% implied probability. Ongoing U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island and retaliatory attacks on tankers exiting the waterway on August 31 and September 1, have kept commercial traffic at single-digit daily levels, as confirmed by Kpler and IMF PortWatch data showing just 3–7 transits on recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85. Heightened mine threats, Iranian blacklists targeting non-compliant vessels, sanctions exposure, and operator rerouting or AIS suppression continue to suppress volumes, with UKMTO noting roughly 90% declines from norms. Market-implied odds reflect these verified disruptions rather than any near-term normalization, as upcoming data releases for the August 31–September 6 period are expected to confirm the constrained environment.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$42,399終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical conflict and elevated maritime security risks have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced weekly transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with the 20-39 bin holding a 69% implied probability. Ongoing U.S.-Iran exchanges, including strikes on Iranian positions near Larak Island and retaliatory attacks on tankers exiting the waterway on August 31 and September 1, have kept commercial traffic at single-digit daily levels, as confirmed by Kpler and IMF PortWatch data showing just 3–7 transits on recent days versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85. Heightened mine threats, Iranian blacklists targeting non-compliant vessels, sanctions exposure, and operator rerouting or AIS suppression continue to suppress volumes, with UKMTO noting roughly 90% declines from norms. Market-implied odds reflect these verified disruptions rather than any near-term normalization, as upcoming data releases for the August 31–September 6 period are expected to confirm the constrained environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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